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UBS: Can commodities rally in 2026?
UBS Global Wealth Management · 12 Jan 2026 · Source
Gold: bullishCentral banksDebt and deficitsFed and ratesGeopoliticsSupply and deficits
- UBS expects gold to reach USD 5,000 per ounce by March, remain around that level through September, and ease toward USD 4,800 by the end of 2026.
- Central-bank buying, large fiscal deficits, lower US real interest rates, and geopolitical risks are expected to support gold.
- Copper and aluminum may rise as supply shortages deepen, driven by clean-energy investment, electrification, and data-center demand.
- Oil prices are expected to recover in the second half of 2026 as the current surplus narrows and OPEC+ spare capacity remains limited.
- UBS favors broad commodity exposure, gold, and selected commodity-linked equities, with an up-to-5% allocation when conditions are favorable.
Gold $5,000 by 31 Mar 2026Reached
“We now expect gold prices to rally to USD 5,000/oz by March, stay there till September, and ease toward USD 4,800/oz by the end of 2026.”
Gold $4,800 by 31 Dec 2026Reached
“We now expect gold prices to rally to USD 5,000/oz by March, stay there till September, and ease toward USD 4,800/oz by the end of 2026.”
