Bank
Societe Generale: ‘All that glitters is fear’ as $5,000 gold is now ‘increasingly inevitable’ – Societe Generale
Kitco News · 13 Oct 2025 · Source
Gold: bullishCentral banksChina and AsiaGeopoliticsInvestment demand
- Societe Generale projects gold at $4,217 an ounce by the end of 2025 and $5,000 by the end of 2026, with upside risks outweighing downside risks.
- The bank raised its outlook after global gold ETF inflows exceeded expectations, including 100 tonnes during the month to the end of Q3.
- ETF buying is being driven by elevated uncertainty linked to U.S.-China trade tensions, tariffs and China’s rare-earth export controls.
- Societe Generale expects central-bank buying to remain resilient and assumes gold flows will stay 67 tonnes per quarter above normal levels.
- The bank says uncertainty is likely to remain above pre-Trump-election levels, even if some recently announced tariffs are never implemented.
Gold $4,217 by 31 Dec 2025Reached
“Recalibrating our gold framework to forecast from today’s gold price (i.e., marking to market the base price but leaving assumptions unchanged), the model points to $4,217/oz by the end of 2025 and $5000/oz by the end of 2026, a 14% increase from our $4,300/oz we released in September.”
Gold $5,000 by 31 Dec 2026Reached
“We now see prices reaching $5000/oz by the end of 2026, as the rate of flows has surpassed our initial assumptions.”
