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Morgan Stanley: Why Gold’s Rally Is Likely to Go On
Morgan Stanley · 22 Oct 2025 · Source
Gold: bullishCentral banksFed and ratesInvestment demandMining stocksUS dollar
- Morgan Stanley raised its gold forecast to $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, implying roughly 10% upside from early October 2025.
- Central-bank purchases, record gold ETF inflows, expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar are seen supporting prices.
- Gold has gained nearly 50% in 2025, while its share of central-bank reserves has overtaken U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996.
- The outlook could weaken if the dollar stays strong, interest rates remain high or elevated prices reduce central-bank and jewelry demand.
- Mine supply is growing slowly, but permitting, regulatory and financing barriers make a new gold-mining capex super-cycle unlikely.
Gold $4,400 by 31 Dec 2026Reached
“Morgan Stanley Research expects the rally to continue and revised its 2026 gold forecast upward to $4,400 per ounce, a significant increase from its previous estimate of $3,313.”
